可乐股吧 Coke and King Kong: 天然气汽车-初步涉猎
Coke wrote on stocks related to natural gas engines/vehicles
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Citigroup Bullish on Potash
I ran into a useful excerpt from the Business Insider that I would like to share with you:
With potash prices riding high, and fertilizer fundamentals growing strong, Potash Corp (POT), is expected to have a strong second half this year.
Citi analyst P.J. Juvekar explains why:
•Fall is expected to be a strong season for fertilizers after Spring application came in 10% lower that expected because of a slow start to planting. With grain prices riding high, farmers are expected to usmore fertilizers to maximize yields.
•Supply of Chinese diammonium phosphates (DAP) and urea exports may be restricted because of the nation's sliding scale tariff policy. Urea exports are projected to decline to 5 million metric tons, from previous 7mmt, while DAP exports are expected to fall to 2mmt from 4mmt last year.
•The DAP market is also expected to be tight because of a ruling that has barred phosphate mining company Mosaic from mining in South Fort Meade. The Mosaic Company (MOS) may also have to buy large quantities of phosphate rock which is likely to constrain the market making room for Potash Corp (POT).
•Rising spot prices and the floor price for potash set by the China contract bode are expected to maintain price momentum. India imports all of its potash but even with a lack of contract settlement there, high global demand has kept the market tight. Potash Corp is looking for $590/st price for shipments later this year and expectations are that a portion new prices will be accepted by Q4.
Disclaimer: This blog is for general information purpose only. Stocks/financial instruments mentioned in this blog are not to be taken as investment advice/recommendation. Readers must consult their own financial advisors and/or consider their own risk/reward profile before making investment/trading decisions. The blog author may have released this information prior to this post to affiliates or parties that have financial interests in trading on this information. The blog author is not liable for any investment/trading decisions of readers should readers decide to base the decisions on information provided by the blog.
Disclosure: The blog author does not own any of the above positions in her personal account as of July 14,2011.
With potash prices riding high, and fertilizer fundamentals growing strong, Potash Corp (POT), is expected to have a strong second half this year.
Citi analyst P.J. Juvekar explains why:
•Fall is expected to be a strong season for fertilizers after Spring application came in 10% lower that expected because of a slow start to planting. With grain prices riding high, farmers are expected to usmore fertilizers to maximize yields.
•Supply of Chinese diammonium phosphates (DAP) and urea exports may be restricted because of the nation's sliding scale tariff policy. Urea exports are projected to decline to 5 million metric tons, from previous 7mmt, while DAP exports are expected to fall to 2mmt from 4mmt last year.
•The DAP market is also expected to be tight because of a ruling that has barred phosphate mining company Mosaic from mining in South Fort Meade. The Mosaic Company (MOS) may also have to buy large quantities of phosphate rock which is likely to constrain the market making room for Potash Corp (POT).
•Rising spot prices and the floor price for potash set by the China contract bode are expected to maintain price momentum. India imports all of its potash but even with a lack of contract settlement there, high global demand has kept the market tight. Potash Corp is looking for $590/st price for shipments later this year and expectations are that a portion new prices will be accepted by Q4.
Disclaimer: This blog is for general information purpose only. Stocks/financial instruments mentioned in this blog are not to be taken as investment advice/recommendation. Readers must consult their own financial advisors and/or consider their own risk/reward profile before making investment/trading decisions. The blog author may have released this information prior to this post to affiliates or parties that have financial interests in trading on this information. The blog author is not liable for any investment/trading decisions of readers should readers decide to base the decisions on information provided by the blog.
Disclosure: The blog author does not own any of the above positions in her personal account as of July 14,2011.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Alcoa's earnings and the global economy
Alcoa (AA), the largest aluminium producer in the world is broadly viewed as one of the barometers of the global economy. Analysts often look at AA's earnings release for some hints of economic conditions.
The second quarter report was no exception. The shares price of AA fell about 2% preceding the release and did very little after it.
Bulls on the global economy may have found assurance from AA's forecast. For the year, Alcoa projects aluminum demand to grow 12% on top of the 13% growth witnessed in 2010. What is better is that the optimism is broad based, including aerospace (7%), automotive (4-8%), commercial transportation (7-12%), packaging (2-3%), building and construction (1-3%), and industrial gas turbines (5-10%). According to Alcoa, aluminum demand would double by 2020 from 2010 on 6.5% annual growth.
By segments,
Alumina - The shipments increased 11.8% year over year to 2.4 million metric tons on production of 4.1 million metric tons. The price of alumina jumped 7%.
Primary Metals - Shipments were 0.7 million metric tons, almost flat with the previous-year quarter. Pricing improved. Production increased by 5% year over year to 0.9 million metric tons.
Flat-Rolled Products - Shipments jumped 24.8% year over year to 0.4 million metric tons. Both Russia and China continued to see positive trends. Besides, third-party volumes were up 41% in Russia and 30% in China compared with the second quarter of 2010.
Engineered Products and Solutions - Shipments surged 23.9% year over year to 0.57 million metric tons. The segment’s strong results were marked by new product developments and productivity improvements.
Obviously all the above results were partially offset by higher energy and raw material prices.
Not everyone shared the optimism. Citigroup analyst, Brian Yu lowered his 2011 earnings estimate to $1.21 from $1.25 per share and his 2012 estimate to $1.35 from $1.43, citing higher-than-expected input prices. Yu estimates that cash costs in the company's primary metals group averaged $1.11 per pound in the second quarter. He notes that if other producers are seeing the same high prices, then current aluminum prices are too low to offset them. He believes these cost pressures are continuing in the third quarter.
My takes:
AA's earnings release echoed another economic bellweather Fedex (FDX)'s earnings release that indicated that impacts on profit margins were contained. However, if oil prices stay stubbornly above $80 for the rest of the year, smaller companies that do not have global presense may not be in the same shoes.
Disclaimer: This blog is for general information purpose only. Stocks/financial instruments mentioned in this blog are not to be taken as investment advice/recommendation. Readers must consult their own financial advisors and/or consider their own risk/reward profile before making investment/trading decisions. The blog author is not liable for any investment/trading decisions of readers should readers decide to base the decisions on information provided by the blog.
Disclosure: The blog author does not own any of the above positions in her personal account as of July 13, 2011
The second quarter report was no exception. The shares price of AA fell about 2% preceding the release and did very little after it.
Bulls on the global economy may have found assurance from AA's forecast. For the year, Alcoa projects aluminum demand to grow 12% on top of the 13% growth witnessed in 2010. What is better is that the optimism is broad based, including aerospace (7%), automotive (4-8%), commercial transportation (7-12%), packaging (2-3%), building and construction (1-3%), and industrial gas turbines (5-10%). According to Alcoa, aluminum demand would double by 2020 from 2010 on 6.5% annual growth.
By segments,
Alumina - The shipments increased 11.8% year over year to 2.4 million metric tons on production of 4.1 million metric tons. The price of alumina jumped 7%.
Primary Metals - Shipments were 0.7 million metric tons, almost flat with the previous-year quarter. Pricing improved. Production increased by 5% year over year to 0.9 million metric tons.
Flat-Rolled Products - Shipments jumped 24.8% year over year to 0.4 million metric tons. Both Russia and China continued to see positive trends. Besides, third-party volumes were up 41% in Russia and 30% in China compared with the second quarter of 2010.
Engineered Products and Solutions - Shipments surged 23.9% year over year to 0.57 million metric tons. The segment’s strong results were marked by new product developments and productivity improvements.
Obviously all the above results were partially offset by higher energy and raw material prices.
Not everyone shared the optimism. Citigroup analyst, Brian Yu lowered his 2011 earnings estimate to $1.21 from $1.25 per share and his 2012 estimate to $1.35 from $1.43, citing higher-than-expected input prices. Yu estimates that cash costs in the company's primary metals group averaged $1.11 per pound in the second quarter. He notes that if other producers are seeing the same high prices, then current aluminum prices are too low to offset them. He believes these cost pressures are continuing in the third quarter.
My takes:
AA's earnings release echoed another economic bellweather Fedex (FDX)'s earnings release that indicated that impacts on profit margins were contained. However, if oil prices stay stubbornly above $80 for the rest of the year, smaller companies that do not have global presense may not be in the same shoes.
Disclaimer: This blog is for general information purpose only. Stocks/financial instruments mentioned in this blog are not to be taken as investment advice/recommendation. Readers must consult their own financial advisors and/or consider their own risk/reward profile before making investment/trading decisions. The blog author is not liable for any investment/trading decisions of readers should readers decide to base the decisions on information provided by the blog.
Disclosure: The blog author does not own any of the above positions in her personal account as of July 13, 2011
Stocks and the Economy: The Timeline of The Fed's Exit Strategies
Stocks and the Economy: The Timeline of The Fed's Exit Strategies: "From the June FOMC meeting minutes , Step 1 : cease reinvesting some or all payments of principal on the securities holdings in Special Ope..."
Monday, July 11, 2011
可乐股吧 Coke and King Kong: 咖啡股经
可乐股吧 Coke and King Kong: 咖啡股经
GMCR, SBUX, JVA, PEET, CBOU, FARM. Coke wrote about coffee stocks stories in 2011.
Friday, July 8, 2011
Corn prices caught a break from China
In a previous post, corn (futures) prices plummeted on a USDA survey that reported more acreage planted than anticipated. July corn futures price dived from almost $8 to as low as $6.15. This sharp dive in crop prices also dragged down most of the agriculture-related stocks.
However, corn prices rebounced sharply to $6.75 after a report from USDA on US trade data and exports sales released on Wednesday and Friday respectively revealed that China bought 540,000 metric tons of corn from the US just last week, much more than the USDA's forecast of 500,000 tons for the whole year.
China is known to be the largest corn consuming country in the world. However, its timing to import corn has been elusive. USDA, as well as analysts will fumble to revise their exports estimates to China upward significantly.
From Wall Street Journal
Disclaimer: This blog is for general information purpose only. Stocks/financial instruments mentioned in this blog are not to be taken as investment advice/recommendation. Readers must consult their own financial advisors and/or consider their own risk/reward profile before making investment/trading decisions. The blog author is not liable for any investment/trading decisions of readers should readers decide to base the decisions on information provided by the blog.
Disclosure: The blog author does not own any of the above mentioned positions in her personal account as of July 8, 2011
However, corn prices rebounced sharply to $6.75 after a report from USDA on US trade data and exports sales released on Wednesday and Friday respectively revealed that China bought 540,000 metric tons of corn from the US just last week, much more than the USDA's forecast of 500,000 tons for the whole year.
China is known to be the largest corn consuming country in the world. However, its timing to import corn has been elusive. USDA, as well as analysts will fumble to revise their exports estimates to China upward significantly.
From Wall Street Journal
The USDA is slated to update its outlook for China's corn imports in a crop report Tuesday. The agency will likely raise the forecast by 3 million to 4 million tons, said Shawn McCambridge, senior grains analyst at Jefferies Bache, a brokerage in Chicago.The fact that the Chinese is in the market is certainly bullish for agriculture related stocks such as POT, MOS, AGU, CF.
USDA chief economist Joe Glauber wouldn't preview next week's report, but said the staff "will certainly be looking at this information" on recent China corn purchases.
"The fact they are in the market is significant," he said. "We expect them to be a bigger and bigger player in the corn market."
Market analysts are also now increasing their China corn import projections. Sudakshina Unnikrishnan of Barclays Capital predicts that China will import about 5 million tons in the 2011-2012 crop year. A month ago, she said she would have forecast about 2 million tons of imports.
"You don't know when or where they are going to make a big splash," said Paul Christopher, international markets strategist at Wells Fargo, "but they will,"
Disclaimer: This blog is for general information purpose only. Stocks/financial instruments mentioned in this blog are not to be taken as investment advice/recommendation. Readers must consult their own financial advisors and/or consider their own risk/reward profile before making investment/trading decisions. The blog author is not liable for any investment/trading decisions of readers should readers decide to base the decisions on information provided by the blog.
Disclosure: The blog author does not own any of the above mentioned positions in her personal account as of July 8, 2011
可乐股吧 Coke and King Kong: Lululemon瑜伽风姿
Click on the link for more details on LULU:
可乐股吧 Coke and King Kong: Lululemon瑜伽风姿
可乐股吧 Coke and King Kong: Lululemon瑜伽风姿
Thursday, July 7, 2011
June 2011 Same Store Sales Scorecard
Whether it is the overly pessimistic downward revised estimates, or the rather sudden subsiding raw material and gasoline prices, or the unusually dry and hot weather, most retailers reported same store sales that beat analysts' estimates.
Luxury and Strong Brand
Leading the way were luxury and strong brand name retailers. Luxury departmental stores such as Neiman Marcus and Saks 5th Ave (SKS), strong brand superstore such as Costco (COST) and women's clothes, Limited Brands (LTD) whose flagship lingerie stores, Victoria's Secrets reaped a 17% rise in same store sales, all reported double digit same store sales growth.
Teenager brands such as Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF), Aeropostle (ARO), American Eagles (AEO) no longer provide monthly same store sales figures while Buckles reported a 10.4% same store sales growth.
ALL GOOD FROM NOW OR JUST AN ADJUSTMENT OVERDONE?
Just a little over a month ago, shares of retailers, especially apparel and shoe makers were beaten down on costs pressure and profit margin squeeze brought by record raw material prices (leather, cotton,etc) and rising gasoline prices that kept shoppers at home.
Commodity and energy prices went through almost a month of correction. International Energy Association (IEA) together with Obama's administration gave energy prices an ultimatum by releasing strategic petroleum reserves，an unusual move given the circumstances but a strong signal of the authorities's determination to stop the energy and commodity rally. The market got the hint. Analysts very soon picked up optimism as gasoline and cotton prices retreated.
However, as many retailers getting ready to hike their products' prices, some as much as 10-15% to pass on higher costs, will the relief in gasoline and raw material prices be enough and in time to score a good report card for retailers in the summer?
Disclosure: The author does not own any of the above mentioned position in her personal account as of July 7, 2011
Luxury and Strong Brand
Leading the way were luxury and strong brand name retailers. Luxury departmental stores such as Neiman Marcus and Saks 5th Ave (SKS), strong brand superstore such as Costco (COST) and women's clothes, Limited Brands (LTD) whose flagship lingerie stores, Victoria's Secrets reaped a 17% rise in same store sales, all reported double digit same store sales growth.
Teenager brands such as Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF), Aeropostle (ARO), American Eagles (AEO) no longer provide monthly same store sales figures while Buckles reported a 10.4% same store sales growth.
ALL GOOD FROM NOW OR JUST AN ADJUSTMENT OVERDONE?
Just a little over a month ago, shares of retailers, especially apparel and shoe makers were beaten down on costs pressure and profit margin squeeze brought by record raw material prices (leather, cotton,etc) and rising gasoline prices that kept shoppers at home.
Commodity and energy prices went through almost a month of correction. International Energy Association (IEA) together with Obama's administration gave energy prices an ultimatum by releasing strategic petroleum reserves，an unusual move given the circumstances but a strong signal of the authorities's determination to stop the energy and commodity rally. The market got the hint. Analysts very soon picked up optimism as gasoline and cotton prices retreated.
However, as many retailers getting ready to hike their products' prices, some as much as 10-15% to pass on higher costs, will the relief in gasoline and raw material prices be enough and in time to score a good report card for retailers in the summer?
Disclosure: The author does not own any of the above mentioned position in her personal account as of July 7, 2011
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
可乐股吧 Coke and King Kong: SODASTREAM,自制汽水？
可乐股吧 Coke and King Kong: SODASTREAM,自制汽水？
Coke wrote about SODA
Coke wrote about SODA
Sunday, July 3, 2011
Macao Casinos Delivered Again in June
From Reuters
For related articles， please check out the following section:
http://cocacolabuffet.blogspot.com/search/label/Gaming
Disclosure: The blog author does not own any of the above positions in her personal account as of July 3, 2011
Macau, the world's largest gambling market, posted an annual 52.4 percent rise in gaming revenue in June to 20.8 billion patacas ($2.6 billion), the Macau government said on Friday, signalling a ravenous gambling appetite from Chinese tourists.Casino stocks that stand to benefit from a regional presence rallied on Friday : Las Vegas Sands(LVS) up 4.22% today, MGM Resorts (MGM) up 4.16%, Wynn Resorts (WYNN) up 4.26%, Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL) up 6.03%.
For related articles， please check out the following section:
http://cocacolabuffet.blogspot.com/search/label/Gaming
Disclosure: The blog author does not own any of the above positions in her personal account as of July 3, 2011
Two conflicting cases for fertilizer stocks this week
Two pieces of news moved stock prices of fertilizer companies this week .
As most of us probably have noticed, stock prices of fertilizer companies move closely together with crop prices (especially corn prices) in the short-term. Surveys by the U.S Agriculture Department (USDA) reported on Thursday that U.S. farmers planted far more corn than expected this growing season. This report sent corn prices plunging and sparked speculation that upward pressure on food prices may be coming to an end. Corn futures for July delivery tumbled to 9.9% to $6.29 a bushel after falling as low as $6.15 on Thursday. Shares of agriculture stocks were affected despite a 4-day rally for Dow Jones Index.
From Wall Street Journal,
In my opinion, share prices of fertilizer stocks will go through a streak of volatility and possibly weakness as crop prices, especially corn prices are testing their support. Once corn prices find their support, say, between $5-$6, the tightness in supply of fertilizers should regain importance. After all, it is generally believed that the economics of using fertilizers makes sense as long as corn prices stay above $3.56, soy bean $8.49, wheat $6.73.
Note: Canpotex is a potash consortium formed by Potash Corp (POT), Mosaic (MOS) and Agrium (AGU). It controls 70% of the world potash trade.
Disclosure: The blog author does not own any of the above positions in her personal account as of July 3, 2011
As most of us probably have noticed, stock prices of fertilizer companies move closely together with crop prices (especially corn prices) in the short-term. Surveys by the U.S Agriculture Department (USDA) reported on Thursday that U.S. farmers planted far more corn than expected this growing season. This report sent corn prices plunging and sparked speculation that upward pressure on food prices may be coming to an end. Corn futures for July delivery tumbled to 9.9% to $6.29 a bushel after falling as low as $6.15 on Thursday. Shares of agriculture stocks were affected despite a 4-day rally for Dow Jones Index.
From Wall Street Journal,
USDA's conducted during the first two weeks of June found farmers had planted 92.3 million acres of corn, the second most since World War II after 93.5 million acres in 2007. ..........In the meantime, fertilizer stocks found strength in Canpotex's success in negotiating a price hike of potash with China. The agreed-upon price of $470 per tonne was $70 higher than last year. Many had expected $450 per tonne. This contract signalled tightness in the supply of potash and continued strong demand from China, the largest fertilizer consuming country in the world.
As recently as June 9, USDA officials had guessed that excessive rain and widespread flooding this spring limited farmers to 90.7 million acres. But a separate USDA report also found supplies were bigger than expected in early June, signaling relief for food companies, livestock producers and consumers.
In my opinion, share prices of fertilizer stocks will go through a streak of volatility and possibly weakness as crop prices, especially corn prices are testing their support. Once corn prices find their support, say, between $5-$6, the tightness in supply of fertilizers should regain importance. After all, it is generally believed that the economics of using fertilizers makes sense as long as corn prices stay above $3.56, soy bean $8.49, wheat $6.73.
Note: Canpotex is a potash consortium formed by Potash Corp (POT), Mosaic (MOS) and Agrium (AGU). It controls 70% of the world potash trade.
Disclosure: The blog author does not own any of the above positions in her personal account as of July 3, 2011
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