Retailers' Outlook in the Second Half

Earnings report cards of retailers so far this year have been upbeat. In the last quarter, about two-thirds of the nation's retailers' earnings topped analysts' expectations, with profits up 26% on average from a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters.

Their stocks reflected that. Retail stocks have been one of the best performers since the bottom of the financial-meltdown-induced bear market. Many retail stocks had a streak of new 52 week highs until recently, for instance, Steve Madden (SHOO), Aeropostale (ARO), Kohl's (KSS), Autozone (AZO), Macy's (M), Officemax (OMX) to name a few. [Click on the diagram below to enlarge it]

Can this be sustainable? Wall Street analysts seem to think not. They forecast retail-profit growth will slow to 17% in the second and third quarters this year and to 11% in the fourth quarter, according to Thomson Reuters.

Companies are very cautious too. Macy's, Kohl's, Staples that have just reported spectacular earnings offer cautious outlook of the full year.

Some of the concerns cited by analysts and companies include:
1. Tougher comparison --- 2008 and early 2009 were easy beat. Consumer confidence and sales were at historically depressed level. Excess inventory cost a bunch. Companies rushed to slash inventory by giving up profit margins altogether.

2. Expected increase in inventory rebuild and other expenses---As the economy and demand recover, companies have started to rebuild inventory and spending on marketing, technology and capital expenditure. Profits can no longer come from cost cutting as they did in the last few quarters

3. Price hikes in raw materials--- As global economy recovers, so is the price of raw materials. Some retailers like Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) is already citing rising cotton price eating into the profit margin.

Leveraged ETF List

ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 Fund (SDS) Top 100

ProShares Ultra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) Top 100

ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TBT) Top 100

ProShares Ultra QQQ Fund (QLD) Top 100

ProShares UltraShort QQQ Fund (QID) Top 100

ProShares UltraShort Financials Fund (SKF) Top 100

ProShares UltraShort Real Estate Fund (SRS) Top 100

ProShares Ultra Financials Fund (UYG) Top 100

ProShares UltraShort Dow 30 Fund (DXD) Top 100

ProShares Ultra Real Estate Fund (URE) Top 100

ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000 Fund (TWM) Top 100

ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas Fund (DIG) Top 100

ProShares Ultra Dow 30 Fund (DDM) Top 100

ProShares Ultra Basic Materials Fund (UYM) Top 100

Barclays S&P 500 2X Long 2009 ETN+ (BXUC)

Barclays S&P 500 2X Short 2009 ETN+ (BXDC)

Direxion BRIC Bear 2X ETF (BRIS)

Direxion BRIC Bull 2X ETF (BRIL)

Direxion India Bear 2X ETF (INDZ)

Direxion India Bull 2X ETF (INDL)

Market Vectors Double Long Euro ETN (URR)

Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN (DRR)

PowerShares DB Agriculture Double Long ETN (DAG)

PowerShares DB Agriculture Double Short ETN (AGA)

PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Long ETN (BDD)

PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short ETN (BOM)

PowerShares DB Commodity Double Long ETN (DYY)

PowerShares DB Commodity Double Short ETN (DEE)

PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN (DTO)

PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP)

PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ)

ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ETF (UBT)

ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (UST)

ProShares Ultra Consumer Goods Fund (UGE)

ProShares Ultra Consumer Services Fund (UCC)

ProShares Ultra DJ-AIG Commodity ETF (UCD)

ProShares Ultra DJ-AIG Crude Oil ETF (UCO)

ProShares Ultra Euro ETF (ULE)

ProShares Ultra FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (XPP)

ProShares Ultra Gold ETF (UGL)

ProShares Ultra Health Care Fund (RXL)

ProShares Ultra Industrials Fund (UXI)

ProShares Ultra MidCap 400 Fund (MVV)

ProShares Ultra MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFO)

ProShares Ultra MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (EET)

ProShares Ultra MSCI Japan Index Fund (EZJ)

ProShares Ultra Russell 1000 Growth Fund (UKF)

ProShares Ultra Russell 1000 Value Fund (UVG)

ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 Fund (UWM)

ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 Growth Fund (UKK)

ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 Value Fund (UVT)

ProShares Ultra Russell 3000 Index Fund (UWC)

ProShares Ultra Russell MidCap Growth Fund (UKW)

ProShares Ultra Russell MidCap Value Fund (UVU)

ProShares Ultra Semiconductors Fund (USD)

ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (AGQ)

ProShares Ultra Small Cap 600 Fund (SAA)

ProShares Ultra Technology Fund (ROM)

ProShares Ultra Telecommunications ETF (LTL)

ProShares Ultra Utilities Fund (UPW)

ProShares Ultra Yen ETF (YCL)

ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (PST)

ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials Fund (SMN)

ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods Fund (SZK)

ProShares UltraShort Consumer Services Fund (SCC)

ProShares UltraShort DJ-AIG Commodity ETF (CMD)

ProShares UltraShort DJ-AIG Crude Oil ETF (SCO)

ProShares UltraShort Euro ETF (EUO)

ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXP)

ProShares UltraShort Gold ETF (GLL)

ProShares UltraShort Health Care Fund (RXD)

ProShares UltraShort Industrials Fund (SIJ)

ProShares UltraShort MidCap 400 Fund (MZZ)

ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Index Fund (BZQ)

ProShares UltraShort MSCI EAFE Fund (EFU)

ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets Fund (EEV)

ProShares UltraShort MSCI Europe Index Fund (EPV)

ProShares UltraShort MSCI Japan Fund (EWV)

ProShares UltraShort MSCI Mexico Investable Market Index Fund (SMK)

ProShares UltraShort MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index Fund (JPX)

ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas Fund (DUG)

ProShares UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth Fund (SFK)

ProShares UltraShort Russell 1000 Value Fund (SJF)

ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth Fund (SKK)

ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000 Value Fund (SJH)

ProShares UltraShort Russell 3000 Index Fund (TWQ)

ProShares UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth Fund (SDK)

ProShares UltraShort Russell MidCap Value Fund (SJL)

ProShares UltraShort Semiconductors Fund (SSG)

ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF (ZSL)

ProShares UltraShort Small Cap 600 Fund (SDD)

ProShares UltraShort Technology Fund (REW)

ProShares UltraShort Telecommunications ETF (TLL)

ProShares UltraShort Utilities Fund (SDP)

ProShares UltraShort Yen ETF (YCS)

Rydex 2X Russell 2000 ETF (RRY)

Rydex 2X S&P 500 ETF (RSU)

Rydex 2X S&P MidCap 400 ETF (RMM)

Rydex 2X S&P Select Sector Energy ETF (REA)

Rydex 2X S&P Select Sector Financial ETF (RFL)

Rydex 2X S&P Select Sector Health Care ETF (RHM)

Rydex 2X S&P Select Sector Technology ETF (RTG)

Rydex Inverse 2X Russell 2000 ETF (RRZ)

Rydex Inverse 2X S&P 500 ETF (RSW)

Rydex Inverse 2X S&P MidCap 400 ETF (RMS)

Rydex Inverse 2X S&P Select Sector Energy ETF (REC)

Rydex Inverse 2X S&P Select Sector Financial ETF (RFN)

Rydex Inverse 2X S&P Select Sector Health Care ETF (RHO)

Rydex Inverse 2X S&P Select Sector Technology ETF (RTW)

COMEX Silver Bear Plus ETF (HZD-TSX)

COMEX Silver Bull Plus ETF (HZU-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro COMEX Gold Bullion Bear Plus ETF (HBD-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro COMEX Gold Bullion Bull Plus ETF (HBU-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bear Plus ETF (HOD-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bull Plus ETF (HOU-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Bear Plus ETF (HND-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Bull Plus ETF (HNU-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 Bear ETF (HXD-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 Bull ETF (HXU-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Energy Bear Plus ETF (HED-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Energy Bull Plus ETF (HEU-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Financials Bear Plus ETF (HFD-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Financials Bull Plus ETF (HFU-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Global Gold Bear Plus ETF (HGD-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Global Gold Bull Plus ETF (HGU-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Global Mining Bear Plus ETF (HMD-TSX)

Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Global Mining Bull Plus ETF (HMU-TSX)

MSCI Emerging Markets Bear Plus ETF (HJD-TSX)

MSCI Emerging Markets Bull Plus ETF (HJU-TSX)

NASDAQ-100 Bear Plus ETF (HQD-TSX)

NASDAQ-100 Bull Plus ETF (HQU-TSX)

S&P 500 Bear Plus ETF (HSD-TSX)

S&P 500 Bull Plus ETF (HSU-TSX)

S&P Agribusiness North America Bear Plus ETF (HAD-TSX)

S&P Agribusiness North America Bull Plus ETF (HAU-TSX)

US 30 Year Bond Bear Plus ETF (HTD-TSX)

US 30 Year Bond Bull Plus ETF (HTU-TSX)

US Dollar Bear Plus ETF (HDD-TSX)

US Dollar Bull Plus ETF (HDU-TSX)

ETFS Leveraged Agriculture ETF (LAGR-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged All Commodities ETF (LALL-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Aluminium ETF (LALU-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Cocoa ETF (LCOC-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Coffee ETF (LCFE-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Copper ETF (LCOP-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Corn ETF (LCOR-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Cotton ETF (LCTO-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Crude Oil ETF (LOIL-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Energy ETF (LNRG-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Ex-Energy ETF (LNEY-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Gasoline ETF (LGAS-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Gold ETF (LBUL-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Grains ETF (LGRA-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Heating Oil ETF (LHEA-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Industrial Metals ETF (LIME-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Lead ETF (LLEA-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Lean Hogs ETF (LLHO-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Live Cattle ETF (LLCT-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Livestock ETF (LLST-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Natural Gas ETF (LNGA-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Nickel ETF (LNIK-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Petroleum ETF (LPET-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Platinum ETF (LPLA-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Precious Metals ETF (LPMT-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Silver ETF (LSIL-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Softs ETF (LSFT-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Soybean Oil ETF (LSYO-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Soybeans ETF (LSOB-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Sugar ETF (LSUG-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Tin ETF (LTIM-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Wheat ETF (LWEA-LSE)

ETFS Leveraged Zinc ETF (LZIC-LSE)

ETFX DAX 2X Long ETF (DEL2-LSE)

ETFX DAX 2X Long ETF (Sterling) (DL2P-LSE)

ETFX DAX 2X Short ETF (DES2-LSE)

ETFX DAX 2X Short ETF (Sterling) (DS2P-LSE)

ETFX Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 Double Short ETF (SEU2-LSE)

ETFX Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 Double Short ETF (Sterling) (SE2P-LSE)

ETFX Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 Leveraged ETF (LEU2-LSE)

ETFX Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 Leveraged ETF (Sterling) (LE2P-LSE)

ETFX FTSE 100 Leveraged ETF (LUK2-LSE)

ETFX FTSE 100 Super Short Strategy ETF (SUK2-LSE)





ETFs within all subcategories:



Direxion Financial Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (FAZ) Top 100

Direxion Financial Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (FAS) Top 100

Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (TZA) Top 100

Direxion Small Cap Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (TNA) Top 100

Direxion Large Cap Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (BGU) Top 100

Direxion Large Cap Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (BGZ) Top 100

Barclays S&P 500 3X Long 2009 ETN+ (BXUB)

Barclays S&P 500 3X Short 2009 ETN+ (BXDD)

Direxion 10-Year Treasury Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (TYO)

Direxion 10-Year Treasury Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (TYD)

Direxion 2-Year Treasury Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (TWOZ)

Direxion 2-Year Treasury Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (TWOL)

Direxion 30-Year Treasury Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (TMV)

Direxion 30-Year Treasury Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (TMF)

Direxion China Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (CZI)

Direxion China Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (CZM)

Direxion Developed Markets Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (DPK)

Direxion Developed Markets Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (DZK)

Direxion Emerging Markets Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (EDZ)

Direxion Emerging Markets Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (EDC)

Direxion Energy Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (ERY)

Direxion Energy Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (ERX)

Direxion Latin America Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (LHB)

Direxion Latin America Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (LBJ)

Direxion Mid-Cap Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (MWN)

Direxion Mid-Cap Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (MWJ)

Direxion Real Estate Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (DRV)

Direxion Real Estate Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (DRN)

Direxion Semiconductor Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (SOXS)

Direxion Semiconductor Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (SOXL)

Direxion Technology Bear 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (TYP)

Direxion Technology Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF (TYH)

ProShares UltraPro Dow 30 ETF (UDOW)

ProShares UltraPro MidCap 400 ETF (UMDD)

ProShares UltraPro NASDAQ 100 ETF (TQQQ)

ProShares UltraPro Russell 2000 ETF (URTY)

ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 Index Fund (UPRO)

ProShares UltraPro Short Dow 30 ETF (SDOW)

ProShares UltraPro Short NASDAQ 100 ETF (SQQQ)

ProShares UltraPro Short Russell 2000 ETF (SRTY)

ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 Index Fund (SPXU)

ProShares UltraPro Short S&P MidCap 400 ETF (SMDD)

source: http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/leveraged-etfs.html

What investors buy when they are scared?

The last two years has been bloody and cruel to stock investors. S&P 500 has not even recovered the loss.
However, not all stocks shared the loss. Investors flocked to these stocks as consumers have been trading down from brand names to generic names, from departmental stores to thrift stores, from changing cars to sticking to old cars and fixing them up.

Thrift stores DLTR, FDO, NDN and auto parts companies AZO, ORLY and AAP are some of the names that benefit most from "trading down". Amidst a newfound fear of financial crisis in Europe, these names surged to new highs just recently as investors fled for safety.
[Click on diagrams to enlarge them]