Wednesday, September 30, 2009

ADP report disappointing or encouraging?

The Dow dropped by triple digit in the morning upon the release of the non-farm private sector employment , ADP report but made a significant  reversal to a positive territory by 1pm EST.

Bloomberg in ADP Says U.S. Companies Cut 254,000 Jobs This Month (Update1) reported:

"Companies in the U.S. cut 254,000 jobs this month, more than forecast, a private report based on payroll data showed today.
The estimated drop, which was the smallest since July 2008, compares with a revised 277,000 decline the prior month, figures from ADP Employer Services showed. The ADP report was forecast to show a decline of 200,000 jobs, according to the median estimate of 33 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Projections ranged from decreases of 300,000 to 133,000.
...........................The report comes two days before a Labor Department release forecast to show the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent in September, the highest since 1983, while employers cut 180,000 jobs.
The economy has lost 6.9 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any economic slump since the Great Depression.
Today’s report showed a decrease of 151,000 workers in goods-producing industries including manufacturers and construction companies. Service providers cut 103,000 workers. Employment in construction fell by 73,000, the 32nd straight monthly drop, while financial firms decreased jobs by 19,000, ADP said, the 22nd consecutive decline for the industry.
Companies employing more than 499 workers shrank their workforce by 61,000 jobs. Medium-sized businesses, with 50 to 499 employees, eliminated 93,000 jobs, and small companies cut 100,000, ADP said."
Although the numbers still look very ugly with unemployment rate expected to exceed double digit, the rate of job losses has slowed. The stock market seemed to pick up from that.

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