Monday, October 5, 2009

Outlook of Coal

In an article in Barron's on October 4, "Peabody stock to double as coal use leaps":
Global coal use is projected to jump by 55 percent by 2025, a trend that could help shares of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU.N) double over the next few years, Barron's said on Sunday.China and India will likely drive the growth,.....................................................The St. Louis-based company's coal reserves in Australia and in Wyoming's Powder River Basin could be worth $18 billion, said Peabody's chief executive, Greg Boyce..................

In another article, "RBS Global Banking raises forecasts for thermal coal"
Bloomberg reported that RBS Global Banking & Markets raised forecasts for thermal coal to generate power and coking coal to make steel, citing higher than expected production costs.

Thermal coal will sell for USD 75 a tonne in the year ending March 31st 2011, up from a previous USD 70 estimate. Coking coal will sell at USD 150 in the period, 15% more than the earlier forecast.

Annual coking coal contract prices fell 57% to about USD 129 a tonne this year as global demand slumped. Power coal prices at Richards Bay have dropped 58% in the past 12 months to USD 60.80 a tonne as companies on the continent cut output in the worst recession since World War II.

Thermal coal will account for 19% of all dry bulk commodities hauled at sea this quarter. Coking coal will make up 7.9%. As a single commodity, only iron ore generates more seaborne trade.

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