Friday, December 4, 2009

Job Market Recovery

Initial job claims' trend very close to creating job?

In a report of Market Watch on December 3,
The number of Americans filing for state unemployment benefits fell by a seasonally adjusted 5,000 to 457,000 in the week ending Nov. 28. It's the fewest initial claims since September 2008. Claims in the previous week were revised lower by 4,000 to 462,000. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected initial claims to rise to about 480,000.

The figures come just a day before the Labor Department reports on November's unemployment rate. Economists expect the jobless rate to remain at a 26-year high of 10.2%, with 100,000 nonfarm payrolls lost. It would be the fewest jobs lost since January 2008.

In Thursday's report, the Labor Department said the four-week average of new claims fell 14,250 to 481,250, the lowest in 13 months. The four-week average smoothes out distortions caused by one-time events, such as bad weather, holidays or strikes.
 The most recent data were collected in the Thanksgiving week. The seasonal factors attempt to adjust for the shortened workweek, but cannot do so perfectly.
It is generally believed that once initial claims fall to the range of 400,000 and 425,000, new jobs can be created.

Unemployment Rate Fell
In Reuters today,
U.S. employers cut a far fewer-than-expected 11,000 jobs in November, the smallest decline since the start of the recession in December 2007, government data showed on Friday, strongly suggesting the deterioration in the labor market was in its final stages.

The Labor Department said the unemployment rate fell to 10 percent from a 26-1/2 year high of 10.2 percent in October. The government revised job losses for September and October to show 159,000 fewer jobs lost than previously reported
These data are consistent with our previous discussions on this blog that the economic recovery is on track.


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