MOS released a disappointing earnings report after the market close yesterday. The company announced net earnings of $100.6 million, or $0.23 per diluted share, for the first quarter ended August 31, 2009. These results compare with net earnings of $1.2 billion, or $2.65 per share, for the first quarter ended August 31, 2008. Revenue fell by 66% to $1.46 billion. Analysts had been expecting EPS of 35 cents on revenue of $1.54 billion.
- Phosphate and Potash Prices Down Sharply. Volume Started to Stabilize
- Market Reaction Down First and Up Later. USD Weaknesses Helped
- Management Optimistic on Outlook
The company expects farmers to increase in demand in anticipation of high crop prices in 2010 as farmers make up for under applications of fertilizers in the late 2008 and 2009. Global economic recovery is expected to continue the trend of better diet (more protein diet) in densely populated emerging markets such as China and India. Inventory of phosphate in North America is at the lowest since May 2006. Inventory of potash is also working down from its elevated level earlier this calendar year. The distribution pipeline has been largely emptied.
- My Takes
- The "better diet in emerging markets" theory has been the bull case offered by the management through its boom and bust , so I don't think this is the "marginal " component that will make a difference in coming months .
- Very lean inventory, on the other hand, is something to get excited about as this was the most important drag on pricing power. Phosphate inventory looks good now. One down, another one to go. Inventory of Potash is a key to the sector in coming months.
- The optimism of management is to a large extent dependent on expected high crop prices in 2010. From the May 2010 futures contract of wheat and corn, this seems to be possible but I wouldn't get too excited until I see some real movements due to the volatility of these commodities.
In a nutshell, things are getting interesting in this sector but I would stay on the sideline until I see some real movements in either crop prices or fertilizer prices.
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Disclosure: The blog author does not own MOS in her personal account as of October 6, 2009