The housing sector continues to stumble with April existing home sales coming in a little below expectations at a 5.05 million annual unit rate, down 0.8 percent in the month with the year-on-year rate moving into the negative double digits at 12.9 percent. Supply on the market ballooned to 9.2 months at the current sales rate vs 8.3 months in March.
But price readings are positive in the report with both the median and average moving higher, up 2.4 percent on the median to $163,700 with the average at $214,600 for a 3.5 percent gain. High supply however won't be supporting further increases for prices which however are very affordable as mortgage rates are favorable. Yet the housing sector just can't get going, weighed down by distressed sales and difficult credit conditions.
Showing posts with label Residential Housing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Residential Housing. Show all posts
Friday, May 20, 2011
Existing Home Sales Continued to Show Weakness
From Wall Street Journal
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Housing starts do not indicate a recovery
From Wall Street Journal
The annualized pace of housing starts posted 0.523 million units below the median market forecast for 0.570 million units and is down 23.9 percent on a year-ago basis. ......................................................................
By region, the drop in starts in was led by a monthly 23.0 percent plunge in the South with the Northeast declining 4.8 percent. However, gains were seen in the Midwest and West, up 15.7 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively.
Housing permits have been volatile in recent months but trending flat. Housing permits declined 4.0 percent in April, following a 7.5 percent surge the month before. Overall permits came in at an annualized rate of 0.551 million units and are down 12.8 percent on a year-ago basis.
The bottom line is that housing is flat and at anemic levels.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Renewed Worries in Housing
Two pieces of housing data, Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and new home sales, came out this week. Some are worried that all the good news that came from the sales front did not translate into price improvement sequentially.
S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices (C-S Index), released yesterday show that the U.S. National Home Price Index fell 3.2% in the first quarter of 2010, but remains above its year-earlier level. In March, 13 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down although the two composites and 10 MSAs showed year-over-year gains.
S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices (C-S Index), released yesterday show that the U.S. National Home Price Index fell 3.2% in the first quarter of 2010, but remains above its year-earlier level. In March, 13 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down although the two composites and 10 MSAs showed year-over-year gains.
“The housing market may be in better shape than this time last year; but, when you look at recent trends, there are signs of some renewed weakening in home prices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. .................................................................................................
“While year-over-year results for the National Composite, 18 of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites improved, the most recent monthly data are not as encouraging. It is especially disappointing that the improvement we saw in sales and starts in March did not find its way to home prices. Now that the tax incentive ended on April 30th, we don’t expect to see a boost in relative demand.”In a report released by Census Bureau , sales of new one-family houses in April 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000. This is 14.8 percent above the revised March rate of 439,000 and is 47.8 percent above the April 2009 estimate of 341,000. The sales outstrips new homes for sales, bringing the months of supply to as low as 5 months (i.e. at the current rate of sales, it takes 5 months to deplete the inventory). However, the price trend is not nearly as encouraging as the sales. The median price of new home sales has been trending downward for months.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Has the housing market bottomed (Part I)
One of the multi-billion questions these days has got to be if the housing market has bottomed. Both sides have gathered ardent supporters and have good case.
I found myself swaying for a long time before I started to gain some positive bias this year. There is a list of indicators I look at :
1. Housing data (existing home sales, new home sales, housing starts, months of supply, prices)
2. Other economic data (employment, interest rates/lending, housing affordability, demographic factors)
Housing data
Existing home sales
Year 2009 has generally painted a much more hopeful picture of housing based on housing data. Housing data have generally shown improvement since the end of 2008, especially so in the last five months. Existing home sales, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), declined 2.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million units in August from 5.24 million in July, but is 3.4 percent above the 4.93 million-unit level in August 2008. In the previous four months, sales had risen a total of 15.2 percent.
Total housing inventory at the end of August fell 10.8 percent to 3.62 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.3-month supply in July. This figure is still high compared to a more normal level of 6-month supply although unsold inventory totals are 16.4 percent lower than a year ago.
Theoretically, new home sales shouldn’t carry as much weight as existing home sales as they carry only 10% of the latter. However, the figure is useful in gauging the homebuilder activity and is clean of complicated interpretations that involve foreclosures/distress sales. New home sales increased by 0.7% to 429,000 units in August from July sales of 426,000 and is 3.4% below August 2008 sales of 444,000.
The inventory in August was 262,000, yielding 7.3 months of supply. Again, the month-of-supply, though has improved significantly from the last year, is still higher than 6-month supply in more normal times.
The median price was $195,200 in August, down from $215,600 in July, and from $221,000 in August 2008.
Housing starts are directly indicative of the supply side of housing market. Housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 598,000. This is 1.5 percent above the revised July estimate of 589,000, but is 29.6 percent below the August 2008 rate of 849,000. Homebuilders have grown cautiously optimistic but are still very careful in bringing new supply to the market. This is conducive to price recovery into 2010.
I found myself swaying for a long time before I started to gain some positive bias this year. There is a list of indicators I look at :
1. Housing data (existing home sales, new home sales, housing starts, months of supply, prices)
2. Other economic data (employment, interest rates/lending, housing affordability, demographic factors)
Housing data
Existing home sales
Year 2009 has generally painted a much more hopeful picture of housing based on housing data. Housing data have generally shown improvement since the end of 2008, especially so in the last five months. Existing home sales, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), declined 2.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million units in August from 5.24 million in July, but is 3.4 percent above the 4.93 million-unit level in August 2008. In the previous four months, sales had risen a total of 15.2 percent.
Total housing inventory at the end of August fell 10.8 percent to 3.62 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.3-month supply in July. This figure is still high compared to a more normal level of 6-month supply although unsold inventory totals are 16.4 percent lower than a year ago.
The median price dropped to $177,700 in August from $181,500 in July, down 12.5 percent from August 2008. First-time buyers purchased 30 percent and distressed homes accounted for 31 percent of transactions in August respectively. Both were unchanged from July.
New home sales
The inventory in August was 262,000, yielding 7.3 months of supply. Again, the month-of-supply, though has improved significantly from the last year, is still higher than 6-month supply in more normal times.
The median price was $195,200 in August, down from $215,600 in July, and from $221,000 in August 2008.
Housing Starts
Housing starts are directly indicative of the supply side of housing market. Housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 598,000. This is 1.5 percent above the revised July estimate of 589,000, but is 29.6 percent below the August 2008 rate of 849,000. Homebuilders have grown cautiously optimistic but are still very careful in bringing new supply to the market. This is conducive to price recovery into 2010.
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